tipping element

tipping element
n.
An ecosystem or region that undergoes an abrupt and significant change in climate, particularly due to human activity.
Example Citations:
Many people think of climate change as a gradual process that occurs over decades and centuries, but environment experts believe that the Earth's climate system can cross tipping points at which a small change can have a big and sudden impact on the fate of large areas. A research team at East Anglia has identified a shortlist of nine potential climate-system tipping elements so that scientists can monitor them with early-warning systems and help policymakers and the public avoid dangerous thresholds.
—Ann Mroz, " THE Awards 2008: http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?storycode=403650," The Times Higher Education Supplement, September 25, 2008
Global change may appear to be a slow and gradual process on human scales. However, in some regions anthropogenic forcing on the climate system could kick start abrupt and potentially irreversible changes. For these sub-systems of the Earth system the researchers introduce the term "tipping element".
Drawing on a workshop of 36 leading climate scientists in October 2005 at the British Embassy, Berlin, Germany, a further elicitation of 52 experts in the field, and a review of the pertinent literature, the authors compiled a short-list of nine potential tipping elements. These tipping elements are ranked as the most policy-relevant and require consideration in international climate politics.
Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet are regarded as the most sensitive tipping elements with the smallest uncertainty. Scientists expect ice cover to dwindle due to global warming. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is probably less sensitive as a tipping element, but projections of its future behavior have large uncertainty. This also applies to the Amazon rainforest and Boreal forests, the El Nino phenomenon, and the West African monsoon. "These tipping elements are candidates for surprising society by exhibiting a nearby tipping point," the authors state in the article that is published in PNAS Online Early Edition. The archetypal example of a tipping element, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, could undergo a large abrupt transition with up to ten percent probability within this century, according to the UN climate report from 2007.
—"Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system," Science Letter, February 19, 2008
Earliest Citation:
A substantial part of the discussions in this group focused on the confirmed and suspected "Achilles' heels," or tipping elements, in the planetary system. The crucial question was whether those critical elements most susceptible to triggering by human actions can be identified in good time to avoid abrupt—and most likely devastating—global change.
—Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Paul J. Crutzen, William C. Clark, Julian Hunt, "Earth System analysis for sustainability," Environment, October 1, 2005
Related Words: Categories:

New words. 2013.

Игры ⚽ Поможем сделать НИР

Look at other dictionaries:

  • tipping point — n. In epidemiology, the concept that small changes will have little or no effect on a system until a critical mass is reached. Then a further small change tips the system and a large effect is observed. Example Citation: Epidemics have their own… …   New words

  • El Niño-Southern Oscillation — El Niño redirects here. For other uses, see El Niño (disambiguation). ENSO redirects here. For other uses, see Enso (disambiguation). The 1997 El Niño observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The white areas off the tropical coasts of South and North America… …   Wikipedia

  • Gulliver effect — (GUL.uh.vur uh.fekt) n. When a large target succumbs to an attack by numerous smaller adversaries. Example Citation: Both events underscore the impact of what s come to be called the Gulliver Effect when a large target, like electronic financial… …   New words

  • Mongolian hordes technique — n. To accomplish a large or complex task by using a large number of relatively unskilled workers rather than a small number of highly skilled workers. Example Citation: Everbody in software knows the Mongolian hordes technique. It implies… …   New words

  • black swan — n. An extremely rare and unexpected event that has significant consequences. black swan adj. Example Citations: Black swans are, of course, those highly improbable but painfully consequential events that strike from the blue or from the streets… …   New words

  • climate canary — n. A natural phenomenon or event that signals a looming environmental disaster caused by climate change. Example Citations: They are dubbed the climate canaries the people destined to become the first victims of world climate change. And as… …   New words

  • event horizon — n. A major turning point; a point of no return. Example Citation: As we sit on the brink of this event horizon for equity markets, you should ask whether this black hole we are entering will deliver us to a new dimension where bulls run freely,… …   New words

  • salami attack — n. A series of minor computer crimes slices of a larger crime that are difficult to detect and trace. Example Citation: According to one knowlegdeable source, another hacker brags that he recently found a way to get into Citibank s computers. For …   New words

  • swarm logic — (SWOHRM law.jik) n. The process by which a large number of unintelligent entities can, by working together without central direction, produce intelligent action. Example Citation: Ant colonies are remarkably similar to cities. No one choreographs …   New words

  • Environment — acoustic ecology anthropocene apocalypse fatigue assisted migration bads biostitute biotecture blue …   New words

Share the article and excerpts

Direct link
… Do a right-click on the link above
and select “Copy Link”